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How to make a Sub based game work! Nerf the Sub! (long)

Discussion in 'WildStar General' started by TuxedoMask, Dec 22, 2013.

?

Would you rather play?

  1. World of Warcraft 15 dollar sub

    29.2%
  2. Wildstar 9.99 sub

    70.8%
  1. TuxedoMask

    TuxedoMask Cupcake

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    That's basically it, it's about greed, they (MMOs) could drop the sub down and operate probably more successfully then at 15. They get those presales coming in, they hear the hype train going and the little dollar bill signs starts jumping around in their eyes.
    At 9.99 the game still makes profit with the base subs and with CREDD there is possibility to make much more


    It's justifiable, but it's not smart for a new MMO who is using a Sub to compete with WoW at that price.
    If you were producing a new car you don't go stand toe to toe with GM/Ford/Chevy/BMW etc, that's asking to get slaughtered. You either go much higher above the products they have or you go below which is how Companies like Hyundai, Kia, Mitsubishi and others have managed to succeed (lower priced cars at the beginning).
  2. Yamagishi

    Yamagishi New Cupcake

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    Does the pirate hat give stats or something? If it does this seems to be less about the idea of cash shops and more about developers turning the cash shop into a pay to win scenario. Cash shops in itself aren't too bad, and with F2P MMO's that is basically were the money comes from. It is really is whats put into it.

    Something like a Christmas costume that is purely aesthetic gives no advantage of any kind besides looking the part for the holidays, compared to if they were to sell the Christmas set but it gives +472 Noodle Stringing and +43 Foot of Wisdom bonus stats.
  3. Anna Tatiana

    Anna Tatiana New Cupcake

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    I'm interested to see how this CREDD system pans out, I have a feeling it's going to be extremely expensive as we all know MMO's have a habbit of the player economy being inflated just because players decide it can be. So you add the CREDD system into the equation where somebody is paying 20 dollars to sell it for in-game gold for whatever the reason...I kind of doubt it's really going to work in the long run lol. The subscription model died, was resurrected, and then beaten to death again. It's really just not a barrier anyone feels like dealing with, especially in this modern era where people extremely conscious over what they spend their money on, and reasonings behind it.

    Either way, I don't really care as I'll pay a sub, but I'm pretty concerned about the vast majority of people, many of which may not of ever even played an MMO with a subscription before, at this point. I hope it all works out the way they seem to think it will, and I think the fact TESO is also deciding to go the subscription route will be their biggest cushion on this matter since "the competition" is doing it, too.
  4. TuxedoMask

    TuxedoMask Cupcake

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    Well, the numbers he is using to support his claim is something he is using from DC online (i think it was) according to that reddit post. Even in the very beginning of that post he says it's his opinion (and it's naive to think he didn't just share stats that support his opinion).
    Stats in Business aren't gospel and you shouldn't treat them that way, they are there to give you an idea of the possibilities but everything isn't black and white like you want to make it seem. Stats can show both sides of the coin as well, there are always stats that can support 2 or more sides it's pretty rare if not extremely rare where there is a stat that shows flat out that X way is the right way. Even big Tobacco had stats that showed their product was "harmless" and no more addictive than eating "Gummy Bears" Actual quotes.

    The fact is that Blizzard is still dominate. It controls the sub market. The last games who have launched at the same sub price have all either died and went F2P or are just barely hanging on (Final Fantasy) . Having this Blind Faith or saying that everything he is doing for his business is correct, well, that's very Fanboyish. If you aren't willing to step outside of being a fan of the game then you can't really speak on things it could be doing wrong. Just like how all the other wowkillers failed when it should've succeeded is the same reason why any game could fail. People just don't want to pay for a sub anymore and having a sub has certain expectation.That's the Trend that is going and you don't need to have stats to see that.
    I'm sure all the games who have launched with a Sub at 15 dollars had those same stats that said they could get away with charging 15 bucks.

    If Blizzard didn't exist or if WoW didn't have a huge choke hold on the sub market then I wouldn't say there is anything wrong with having a 15 dollar sub, hell 20bucks would work if WoW didn't exist, but WoW does exist and many Millions of players have played it, Millions still love it, many have quit playing it, many have sworn to never play a sub based game again. Going after ex-WoW players is still part of the business plan for any game, Carbine even said they are going after the ex-WoW players.
    Having a reddit post from a CEO talking about Money and then you say that it's not out of Greed? (In one of his interviews he even says his goal is to make truck loads of money shocking right?)

    Go look through past interviews with some of these CEO's or Devs of other games and what they talked about with subs. A lot of those games had a ton of hype/fans behind them also, there were also many fans like you taking the same position that you are saying. I'm just saying that you shouldn't be so convicted in what you are expressing as a truth because just like you are saying I don't have the stats that they do, neither do you, you are hoping which is fine but you shouldn't be so critical for others for challenging the ideas or words that these companies express to us.
  5. TuxedoMask

    TuxedoMask Cupcake

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    I think they said that players won't control the price of CREDD. You just buy it then put it on the CX, you don't get to see who bought it, or anything like that either. It's basically Fire and Forget
  6. Livnthedream

    Livnthedream Super Cupcake

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    He said pretty clearly that it was an example to illustrate. If you honestly think those are the direct numbers they are using you are delusional.

    Yes, numbers that were bought and paid for to reach those conclusions. Much like the billion dollars a year big business is currently pumping into global warming denial. Generally, the numbers are nowhere near as convoluted as you claim assuming you are reading them correctly. This is why analysts get paid the big bucks, and even when they are wrong its by degrees, not catastrophically.

    The sheer number of bad assumptions is sad. Changing business model isn't death. Going f2p to increase revenue, especially when it was unheard of in the west just a few years ago, is not a bad thing. Similarly, as far as I am aware only 2 games have been "WoWkillers". Rift did it as a marketing ploy, after all the best way to get use of small marketing dollars is to create controversy. Swtor changed their tune as the game started to come together. The comments to "we are going to kill WoW" stopped over a year before the game the shipped, to the point that the devs flatly said repeatedly at convention after convention that they were not challenging it.

    I would also love to see you point out my fanboy. Especially when I have challenged the logic of going sub repeatedly on these forums. I firmly believe that ala carte is the business model going forward which has all sorts of data to support it. Carbine doesn't want to make a game to support that though. They want one that is all inclusive, which I don't believe will work to the degree that they want it to. You can drive player behavior in only so many ways, and I doubt that they will be able to drive teamwork as much as they want to while still keeping it solo friendly. It is a hell of a dream, and one I wish to support as that is certainly the kind of game that I want to play, but the numbers I do not believe are actually there.

    Making money != greed. Also, you are making the assumption that the "sub" market is especially finite. If sub price was the only thing to compete with then why aren't Netflix and Hulu plus both free?

    Here is the funny thing, I have watched/read a great many interviews on subs, business model, why and how they work/fail. In all honesty probably a great many more than you. The economic principle is actually rather simple, which is why I tried to point it out to you earlier. Dropping sub price only works if the primary issue holding people back is the actual price of the sub. You do realize that alternate sub prices have been done before right? You really don't think the numbers from Runescape and the like aren't known? You really think the analysis hasn't been run? Design in all things is iterative. If the price of the sub was a, much less the, major sticking point the drop from $15 to "free" would have been more gradual. There is little upside to having a partial sub fee, while still retaining all of the downside.
    Bnol likes this.
  7. Livnthedream

    Livnthedream Super Cupcake

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    How much its put on the Cx for is controlled by the player.
  8. TuxedoMask

    TuxedoMask Cupcake

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    I don't think I can agree with you on any subject it would be better for both of us if you didn't reply to me and I won't reply to you because we are obviously both opinionated and both aren't changing our views no matter how much we deem ourselves to be correct. Going back and forth over the same stuff again and again and neither of us are budging on our views so it's probably better this way because in all honesty everything you say to me just sounds like you don't have any idea what you are talking about or you just don't understand the business aspects I'm bringing up. I'm fairly sure you probably feel the same way about your views towards the topic and how I react to it.

    Rather than stretch this out for more pages of bicker or debating is pretty pointless.
  9. Livnthedream

    Livnthedream Super Cupcake

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    Nope. I refuse to let you to continue to spread misinformation as some kind of fact. The price point of the sub is not the main point of contention when it comes to why "players are not playing the game". It really is that simple. As you said yourself, it having a sub at all is driving people away. Having a $10 or $5 sub is not going to get those players to play. Just being cheaper is not going to be enough to get people to switch from WoW to Wildstar. If it were then f2p would have yanked away the player base years ago. There is no real upside to dropping the price of the sub.
    Eliat_kuni likes this.
  10. TuxedoMask

    TuxedoMask Cupcake

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    misinformation?
    Like I said, You don't understand anything I say or you just are unable to comprehend it.

    I appreciate the free bumps though
  11. Livnthedream

    Livnthedream Super Cupcake

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    Attempting to pin sub loss/unwillingness to pay purely on price point is misinformation. Look at f2p shops, where the trend is actually an increase in price of items instead of a drop, why do you think that is? Why is $10 outfits the norm today, where even just 2 years ago it was half that? The numbers do not work the way you are stating they do. Netflix is not a power house based entirely on price point. There are too many other things that can (and are!) used to drive numbers. Here is some food for thought:
    http://www.gdcvault.com/play/1017854/Things-Android-Game-Developers-Should
    http://www.gdcvault.com/play/1015808/Cross-Platform-Games-Monetization-in
    http://www.gdcvault.com/play/1014681/Commerce-Platform-Economics-Analysis-Behind (actually counters your argument almost entirely)
    http://www.gdcvault.com/play/1014678/Design-and-Execute-the-Optimal (sort of agree's with you, but not really)
    http://www.gdcvault.com/play/1014680/Recruit-Profitable-Players-through-Advanced
  12. TuxedoMask

    TuxedoMask Cupcake

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    You still fail at why I am behind the 9.99 price and the position I take. When you actually understand what I'm talking about, then maybe we can have this debate that you want to happen so badly. Your retorts are just missing everything I'm talking about and expressing here to the community.

    Thanks for the bump though
  13. Livnthedream

    Livnthedream Super Cupcake

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    Then feel free to explain it better. Because your argument as I understand it is thus:
    You believe the $10 vs $15 price point is the main reason why people are not subbing.
    That to compete with WoW you must drop the price point.

    What is really bad is you back up your argument with poor reasoning. You attribute things to success that did not play anywhere near as big a role as you claim and you misunderstand models along the way. From your op you claim that Netflix is like Walmart, when the models and how they operate are nothing alike. Walmart spams area's with stores and low prices to put people out of business, then closes uneeded stores and raises prices as they expand. Netflix doesn't do that. Netflix has always focused on providing service for the customer. Which is why I keep pointing out why Netflix vs Hulu plus is a giant hole in your entire theory.
  14. TuxedoMask

    TuxedoMask Cupcake

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    For 1, I made the analogy that Blockbuster was like Wal-Mart, not Netflix
    For 2, You completely missed the analogy and why I made it
    For 3, I've stated why 9.99 would work and I said it multiple times all throughout this Thread.

    You can't comprehend what I'm talking about so you are calling it "poor reasoning".
  15. Livnthedream

    Livnthedream Super Cupcake

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    Thats what I get for skimming for a quick example. Even then, Blockbuster did not operate like Walmart either. They couldn't. Blockbuster is/was entirely about providing luxury goods. Netflix destroyed them not on price, but on ease of use/access.

    And no, your numbers don't work because you have misread the market. Which is exactly why I linked you a ton more data. Your entire argument is predicated on getting enough new people to join to make up the difference of the rest not paying that additional $5. Every time similar has been tried the increase is closer to 20% increase, which doesn't make it up and increases costs to boot. To get enough new people to play you must do something more drastic, ie f2p or dropping box cost.
  16. TuxedoMask

    TuxedoMask Cupcake

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    Blockbuster did operate like Wal-Mart, they were huge and had specific deals with distribution companies so they could buy more movies at a wholesale/cheaper price than the competition. The amount of stores that chain had was, well, a lot. There were a lot of stores and like other chains (Subway, McDonalds etc) they allowed people to purchase (Franchise) stores so it wasn't all a corporate chain. They had a monopoly on the entertainment rental industry. You shouldn't talk about what you don't understand.

    Still wrong though on what I'm talking about though, it has little to nothing to do about making up the difference between 10 and 15, that's just a by product. Not trying to be mean, but some people just don't understand how business works and it's not bad that you don't understand it. There are plenty of classes you can take or even do self-studies if you want to learn how to recognize trends in business or recognize the similarities that some business have with each other.

    Listen, come back after you've learned some things about business because for now it's like you want to argue something you don't understand and you expect me now to keep feeding you more info so you might understand if only to retort on how I am possibly wrong. I understand you want me to show you how to recognize these things but I can't just tell you what to look for, you have to be able to see it for yourself.
  17. Livnthedream

    Livnthedream Super Cupcake

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    Blockbuster didn't raise prices after it out competed its competition. Also, what monopoly? Are you forgetting Hollywood Video?

    Also, I really gotta say, the reason why both Blockbuster and Hollywood Video turned down Netflix was because they did not think the business model stood a chance because as it was both companies was making the vast majority of its profit off from late fees, one of the major selling points of the Netflix service.

    Please explain it to me or link me to a source then. Cause I am pretty sure that if your player base/projected player base is 100k at $15 per month you lose money when you drop it to $9.99 and your new player base is only 120k. Which is exactly what has been observed repeatedly using similar products.
  18. Sapien

    Sapien Cupcake-About-Town

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    Some people is like politicians - dont have an opinion for themselfs, and when they saying things, they acctually not saying anything. :sleep:
  19. Bazeleel

    Bazeleel Cupcake-About-Town

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    I just want to point out something. At 8 million subs paying 15$/mo. Over 1 year blizzard makes over 1.4 Billion dollars.

    Some of you are saying they couldn't afford to cut down the sub fee? Because logic right?


    That more then enough to pay their employees and server costs. Self ran servers are terribly cheap. So yes it's possible to cut that down by 5$ and still make a stupid amount of profit.


    Still with that being said, we don't know the cost/bills blizzards has, maybe they are just getting by, of course I think this is not the case. Also once hearthstone is officially released.....holy money train batman!



    Now it is harder for say the smaller mmos to make that kind of profit, but if they lower the sub fee to say 10-12$ monthly. Then suddenly WoW is is forced to compete with that. You would be surprised at how big that would impacted the mmo market.


    It's a great idea and I think it is possible but that is souls up to carbine and how they want to run things.
  20. Livnthedream

    Livnthedream Super Cupcake

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    Except Blizzard doesn't actually get that much of the sub fee, and never has. Feel free to check their financials, as a publicly held company they are freely available. Here is a hint, from q2 Blizzards gross revenue for WoW amounted to ~$8.50 per sub. That is including micro transactions from the store and server transfers. This is before calculating overhead (which was substancial).


    They aren't cheap once you start taking into account all of the myriad upkeep measures, like the costs associated data security. The fourth video from a couple posts above goes into it in pretty solid detail.

    And where did the money come from to make Hearthstone? How about the sheer amount that went into making and refining D3 and Starcraft 2? What about the money pit that is known as Titan? Or the likely numerous games that have been worked on that will never be released?

    WoW only has to compete at that price point if people are leaving to join Wildstar, likely because of it. If they aren't, then WoW could care less. Why do you think your grocery store caries 5 different kinds of mustard all at different price points?

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