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Will wildstar be a huge flop.

Discussion in 'WildStar General' started by WSN UnUs, Jul 7, 2013.

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Will wildstar flop?

Poll closed Jul 17, 2013.
  1. Yes

    11 vote(s)
    4.4%
  2. No

    107 vote(s)
    43.1%
  3. To early to tell.

    130 vote(s)
    52.4%
  1. jackashflash

    jackashflash Cupcake-About-Town

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    No one with 10 brain cells functioning uses WoW as a yardstick. I have never seen someone claim that if you don't have 8+ million subs for nearly a decade the game is a failure.

    Why do people make this stupid red herring? I have met no one who has ever thought their opinion was a fact.

    Archeage tanked in Korea. Westerners don't like asian MMOs, so if it cant do good there, no chance here.

    EQNext won't release any earlier than 2015. Not even a photo released. Its not coming out anytime soon!

    TESO and FF are fad games. Most will dump it in 2 months. I stick by this, fad games. TESO isn't even an MMO, their own devs rip on it and call it a single player game. FF tanked in like a month last time... Now I am supposed to believe its not a joke?

    WoW players current and past are tired of the game. Its gotten old. Tons of WoW players are bored with the game, but there isn't anything better. I know lots of people who quit every time a new MMO comes out, and then come back when it flops.

    The market is pretty open for WS. All they have to do is release a quality product!

    So yah, instead of red herrings why not try to refute my claims?
  2. jackashflash

    jackashflash Cupcake-About-Town

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    Not necessarily. You don't know what country I am from, or what area within that country. Animals are still widely used in the world for manual labor and transportation.

    The area I live in for instance, which is in the US, there were people still using horses 50 years ago.

    However, I didn't say I specifically remembering seeing it with my own eyes. I said I remember it, as in I remember history told to me.

    You should never make assumptions unless you are aware of them.
  3. Witless

    Witless "That" Cupcake

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    What is their to refute? They are all subjective opinions. Not one of them is based on any fact. The only one that is close to factual is that ArcheAge is not doing as well as expected in Korea.

    Every thing else is an opinion .. You may be right and you may be wrong. But you write it as if it's a fact, when it's not.

    Red herring, LOL!
  4. jackashflash

    jackashflash Cupcake-About-Town

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    They are not merely opinions based on nothing,
    For instance, 'Westerners tend not to play asian MMOs'. That is a trend existing for well over a decade.


    Yes, that was a red herring.
    I need not remind you that the post I quoted was merely an opinion as well, right?

    There is no reason you can't discuss differences of opinions either. So when you say "What is their to refute?", that is actually another red herring.
  5. Witless

    Witless "That" Cupcake

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    LOL! One thing.

    Fine, I'll refute your opinions with opinions of my own

    You are stating these games will suck for one reason or another. One on a trend, did you know Trion is localizing it? They have the ability to "westernize" parts of it. We'll see if the trend holds true.

    TESO and ARR are fad games? Okay ARR has 1 million beta participants. That's not a fad number. Will it translate to release, probably not, but what will it be 750,000, 500, 000? You and I both know TESO is going to at least draw a huge community at launch, whether it sticks are not. I think it's safe to say that TESO has a much larger following than WS. EQNext, there are more than just pictures out. The engine they are using is being tested every day in PS2. Beta is coming soon (yes no date yet). This could easily come out in Mid 2014, we'll know more on 8/2, and EQNext will be extremely anticipated.

    So what does all this mean? Not much, just (as I said in my original post in this thread) these 5 games could have a serious impact on whether WS is a flop or not. My opinion, based on trends, thoughts, internet gaming sites, etc.. You came in and dismissed my opinions with your own opinions, based on trends, your personal feelings and thoughts, etc. then you got aggravated when I called you on it.

    No red herring involved. Everything said by you and I was opinion.
    Sayantan likes this.
  6. jackashflash

    jackashflash Cupcake-About-Town

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    Trends aren't facts and they aren't opinions. My analysis was based on those trends. Still an opinion, but more of an educated guess.

    Red herring is an English-language idiom, a logical fallacy that misleads or detracts from the issue.

    When you say, your opinions are not facts(which was never claimed), so I won't discuss them. That is a red herring.
  7. jackashflash

    jackashflash Cupcake-About-Town

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    AA has no hope, lets not even pretend it does. Asian MMO that can't even make it in asia, no chance in hell here. It will likely just be another Aion or Tera. I see no reason to expect more, especially based on the videos I have seen.

    TESO will have a huge launch, based solely on the IP. They will make lots of money, but its not a real MMO (Even said by the devs), so it likely isn't going to endure. People will play the single player stuff, get to end game (What end game), and then poof. Just like SWTOR, just like GW2.

    FF is only a step above AA. It failed in record time before. I have no faith they can pull it off. The game is coming out in a month on PS3 for crying out loud! 1st off console, red flag! 2nd, old console huge red flag. 3rd off, the game is coming out in a month, while WS is a ways off. That means the large initial sales won't affect WS at all. Only their retention customers will be significant, which I predict to be on the low end.

    Furthermore,
    Is the audience for TESO, FF, or AA even remotely the same as WS? I don't think it is.
    2 asian MMOs and 1 single player game.

    EQnext has no beta. Is it even in alpha? Beta alone usually takes a year. So yah, don't expect this game anytime soon. WS will have already long since launched and made its impact, whatever that is.
  8. Compella

    Compella Cupcake

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    My opinion is that TESO, EQNext, ARR are going to be a ripple, WS is a wave. Sure, they may pull a decent crowd at launch but Carbine will attract most people with a superior game.

    This may be arrogant/biased but I look at the other MMO's combat/engines/design choices and I think they're going down the wrong path. I was playing a WoW alpha leaked sandbox version and I knew it was the next big thing from the moment I set foot in it.
  9. jackashflash

    jackashflash Cupcake-About-Town

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    What MMO doesn't pull a huge crowd at launch? The trick is keeping them, and then attracting new customers.
    Iamaom, Sayantan and Compella like this.
  10. Ennui

    Ennui Cupcake

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    i haven't seen much on TESO, but the fact that they are catering to consoles worries me to no end. i would agree that it will likely be much like SWTOR, large at launch, but then will see a steep decline in subs.

    ARR imo is pretty, very pretty in fact. but from what i've seen the devs aren't listening to their beta testers (i was one of them, and seeing the same complaint hundreds of times in a single thread... and they didn't even touch it) the combat is lack luster. i'd go so far as to call it downright boring. long GCD, and no real dps CD's. you just mash your hardest hitting/healing attack/spell repeatedly til it dies. so i would tend to agree its a fad, insofar as FFXI is a fad. i think people from XI will migrate to XIV, but that is probably the limit of who will play it.

    EQNext i know nothing about. i wasn't ever an evercrack player. but, from what i've heard is that they are going the sandbox method because EQ players were clambering for a sandbox game. if they do go the sandbox route, i have a feeling that it will flop as well.

    people are dumb and don't realize what they want, they *think* they want a sandbox game, but when they get one they complain about it. people on forums have been QQ-ing about firefall because its sandboxy and they have no direction. Age of Wushu? there are no quests past the tutorial area, and look at how popular that is... not very.

    i think carbine is doing things the right way. they have a bunch of really smart dev's that are very experienced. could they flop? yes i think they could. will they? well. i hope not because from what i've seen so far WildStar will be a very solid game. will it draw a WoW sized crowd? maybe not. but what someone earlier has said, WoW players are bored, and they only play it because its the only halfway decent game out there atm. like me, i still have a sub, but i'm just *waiting* for something else to spend my money on.
    Xlugon Pyro and jackashflash like this.
  11. Sayantan

    Sayantan Cupcake

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    This generalization is not entirely true. It is partly true in the sense that Western audience do not enjoy the "grind" which is associated with Asian MMOs.

    However, western audience is also a bit of a sucker for Asian MMO artwork and simply drool over the furries and skimpy female attire that Asian MMOs bring (/shrug).

    So, as soon as an Asian dev figures out how to remove the grind from their MMO when they bring it west, it will end up being fairly successful in the West also.

    Recall that FFXI was fairly popular in the West in its heyday.
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  12. Fishsticks

    Fishsticks Cupcake-About-Town

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    I stopped after this. I'm not really a huge fan of either franchise with only 50 hours or so total logged in Skyrim - but this is clearly just baseless speculation. The sheer number of people invested in those IPs will make it difficult (although not impossible) for the games to fail outright...let alone in 2 months
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  13. Fishsticks

    Fishsticks Cupcake-About-Town

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    I think this misunderstands the audience for TESO. You're right that TESO isnt calling itself an MMO - it's calling itself Multi-player Elder Scrolls. I would argue this is a brilliant move from a marketing standpoint.

    What Skyrim player DOESN'T want to play the same game with his friends instead of alone? I certainly would have played it more. People have logged literally thousands of hours into single-player Elder Scrolls games, I fail to believe they are going to just play it for an afternoon and quit because there's no social hub or other MMO aspects. It's not trying to takeover the WoW market - it's a different and equally, if not more rabid, fanbase

    Imagine if GTA came out and said they are going to have multi-player in the standard game, are you telling me people wouldn't go ape<REDACTED> crazy? (incidentally, I've heard they are thinking of/have some of this in GTA 5...)
  14. Livnthedream

    Livnthedream Super Cupcake

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    Great marketing, sure. The problem is it won't be an "Elder Scrolls" game. It means too many different things to too many people. The kinds of balance required for a multiplayer game kills a chunk of your playerbase right there, as does those who are in it for an "immersive" gameplay experience. Then you get the players who mod the <REDACTED> out of their game because honestly, they do not like much of the ES games anyway. They are great at framing, but the wiring and plumbing is a catastrophe.

    That game has already been made, its called APB. Even the "fixed" version is not exactly doing well.
  15. Fishsticks

    Fishsticks Cupcake-About-Town

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    APB isnt the same IP as GTA though, which obviously makes a huge difference. What I mean is, no one is going to buy a game because its got an APB label where as many many people would buy a new game just because it has the GTA title. I think that same methodology applies to other big name IPs such as FF and ESO which have devoted and rabid fanbases.
  16. Livnthedream

    Livnthedream Super Cupcake

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    Yes and no. There are plenty of examples of ip driven items failing when said item did not stay true to the ip. Ip marketing works when you have a low cost and can almost guaruntee that your core can make it worth your while. Eso is a service, and services do not tend to do well when what is being offered is so different from the source. Its why if GTA does go multiplayer, it will be as an addon, a way to get more shelf life and add value, not as a core game mechanic.
  17. Fishsticks

    Fishsticks Cupcake-About-Town

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    That's true I'm sure, but I challenge you to name one without googling it. I certainly can't think of one - even Warhammer online was a (relative) success in as much as the game was financially viable and sold 750k copies at launch. Maybe you could argue the first release of FF XIV, but since they've re-vamped and re-released the same title and it seems to be doing fine, I'm not sure that works either.

    Well...looks like this is already happening, and not as an add-on. So I dunno what to say here other than...yeah...

    http://www.gamefront.com/gta-5-trailer-teases-grand-theft-auto-online-multiplayer/
  18. Gamma

    Gamma New Cupcake

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    The updates they have been releasing are promising...I've got high hopes for this game.
  19. Livnthedream

    Livnthedream Super Cupcake

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    Its not much of a challenge honestly. The problem is you are looking entirely at video games, though there is many obvious choices there too. Look at the Star Wars and Star Trek CCG''s that bankrupted Decipher, or the Firefly pnp rpg, or even Brotherhood of Steel and Shadowrun for Xbox. Also, calling a game "financially viable" or "relative success" is absurd when that is not the metric those who are making the game are using. Star Wars Galaxies was a profitable failure.

    The problem is, its not a core design feature. Its not an "add on" like a UI mod, but something that has been bolted onto the side. Like how many good fps games have multiplayer tacked on to increase "value" and add shelf life when they are not designed with multiplayer in mind. Even the reverse of that is true. When was the last good Call of Duty single player campaign?
  20. Sqwarsh

    Sqwarsh New Cupcake

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    I have no clue what the heck everyone in this thread is rambling on about. I think Wildstar will do great though. I love how almost everything looks so far. The story, atmosphere, art design, the humor, the warplots, the housing, the social circles, the "choose your playstyle" gameplay, and everything else. Can't wait to actually experience it all.
    Skippy likes this.

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